What these new landing barges can tell us about China’s plans to invade Taiwan

China’s intentions when it comes to Taiwan have been at the centre of intense discussion for years. Both mainland China and Taiwan claim to represent the “real” China after the Kuomintang nationalist party under Chiang Kai Shek retreated across the Taiwan Strait and established the Republic of China there in 1949. Ever since then, mainland China – the People’s Republic – has maintained a claim over Taiwan.

But in recent years, Chinese leaders – including the current president, Xi Jinping – have talked of plans for “reunification” which would bring Taiwan and its population of 23 million under the control of Beijing. By force if necessary.

Now, the recent appearance of a handful of odd-looking barges at a beach in Guangdong province in the People’s Republic may be a significant movement towards that unwelcome potential outcome.

The Shuiqiao barges filmed in March 2025 working together to form a relocatable bridge – the name means “water bridge” – enable the transfer of vehicles, supplies and people between ship and shore, over shallow beaches and potential obstacles on to firm ground. Analysts have already pointed out that there is no obvious commercial role for such large vessels, so the most likely purpose is for landing armed forces during amphibious operations.

All major navies maintain some form of amphibious capability. The UK’s Royal Fleet Auxiliary, for example, operates the UK’s three bay class landing ships, which are due to be replaced by six modern multi-role strike ships. What is particularly significant, however, is that the Shuiqiao offers capabilities along similar lines to the Mulberry harbours built for the D-Day Normandy landings.

The specialised nature of these landing barges, with only one real purpose – to help land large numbers of military forces, stands in contrast with mainstream amphibious vessels. Bay class ships, for example, continue to be used for civilian evacuations, humanitarian aid, disaster relief and a wide range of military roles.

That is a crucial distinction as amphibious operations present huge logistical challenges. D-Day required 850,000 troops, 485,000 tons of supplies and 153,000 vehicles to be landed safely over the first three weeks. Ports tend to be difficult to seize intact, as was demonstrated to great cost during the 1942 raid on Dieppe, so it is generally necessary to land armies over the invasion beaches.

The ability to install temporary harbours, which is what the Shuiqiao bridges appear to provide, offers a means of quickly landing large forces from bigger ships to shore. That also reduces the number of specialised landing ships required, by enabling the use of commercial vessels for ferrying troops to those makeshift ports.

Is an invasion of Taiwan imminent?

What is of concern is that such specialised landing barges are not normally constructed until shortly before they are intended to be used. The Mulberry harbours went into production only a year before the Normandy landings. This is both to ensure they are in good working order when required, but also as they tend to offer little additional value and yet come at a significant price. In this present case, the nearest comparable civilian and military vessels cost hundreds of millions of dollars each.

This does not mean that their appearance guarantees that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent. At present there are reported to be three completed prototype landing barges ready for deployment and three under construction. This would offer one or two beach bridges, each an estimated 820 metres long.

That would be of minimal value in a major invasion. The single US Navy Jlots modular floating pier in Gaza, for example, was only able to land 8,800 tonnes of aid in 20 days. While the Gaza effort was affected by bad weather, any Shuiqiao landing bridges would face much more dangerous wartime conditions. Three to six barges could also still plausibly be intended for disaster relief, even if does not seem a particularly cost-effective means of delivering aid.

But if the number of these barges continues to increase then the assumption must be that a major amphibious expedition is likely within the next decade. Historically, neither the UK, US or any other major power has maintained more than a handful of such highly specialised landing vessels, except for when they intended to use them. In the case of these barges the target may not necessarily be Taiwan – although it would be the most obvious target.

Assuming that an invasion does not trigger a world war, it might still be unsuccessful. Despite years of preparation and near complete control of the sea and skies, the Normandy landings were incredibly perilous and at times looked at risk of defeat. Success came at great cost in lives, through great skill, and at times a little luck. More than 4,400 allied soldiers are believed to have died within the first 24 hours alone, with many more wounded.

Furthermore, getting forces ashore is only part of the challenge. Taiwan’s geography is not suited to rapid movement inland and in similar historic cases that has led to significant additional casualties and delays.

The battle of Anzio during the 1944 invasion of Italy, for example, registered tens of thousands of casualties as the allies struggled to break out of the beachhead. Likewise, at Gallipoli in 1915, repeated failures to move inland saw allied forces suffer hundreds of thousands of casualties only to eventually withdraw.

As a historian who is fond of China, I can only hope that these prototypes will remain just that and this will join the list of other forgotten moments in world history. If not, then the conflicts we have seen since the cold war and even those of the past few years may look minor in comparison to what could be unleashed as a result of an invasion of Taiwan.

Matthew Heaslip is a Visiting Fellow at the Royal Navy's Strategic Studies Centre.