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  •   Home > News > International

    Minor parties clash as Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson battle for right-wing voters in federal election

    With polls indicating the Coalition may need preferences from right-leaning candidates to secure key seats, Trumpet of Patriots and One Nation could play a decisive role in how the election plays out.


    They are the minor parties looming large this federal election.

    One Nation, led by the party's creator Pauline Hanson, and Trumpet of Patriots, led by businessman and former politician Clive Palmer, share a similar voter base.

    With polls indicating the Coalition may need preferences from right-leaning candidates to secure key seats, these two parties led by Queensland mavericks could play a decisive role in how the election plays out.

    Who are they?

    Pauline Hanson's One Nation has been on the political scene since 1997, and despite a few hardships — including Ms Hanson being removed from her party in 2002 — she made a return to politics and was elected as a senator for Queensland in 2016.

    The party began on an anti-immigration platform, and its current iteration has a similar stance, promising to deport 75,000 "illegal migrants" as part of its 2025 policy agenda.

    Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots has had less time to cut through, after Mr Palmer lost his High Court bid to re-register the United Australia Party earlier this year.

    He joined the Trumpet of Patriots soon after.

    Hoping to make the most of Australian voters who like Trump, the party stands on a platform of cutting immigration, limiting foreign ownership of Australian property and land, and getting the "woke agenda" out of schools.

    This week the party has come under fire for spam texts sent by the party, which are legal under Australian law.

    How are they polling?

    Pauline Hanson's One Nation is polling higher than its 2022 election result — with a recent survey putting its primary vote at 10.5 per cent.

    Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots is spending millions to spruik its message to voters ahead of the May 3 poll.

    Alex Sivyer lives in the electorate of Wright, south-west of Brisbane, and is a supporter of both parties.

    The 53-year-old said he voted for One Nation, and Trumpet of Patriots got his next preference.

    "I don't have any trust in Labor, they lie non-stop," Mr Sivyer said. 

    "I just think One Nation and the Trumpets are more for Australia.

    "I'm never a devoted person, but I am kind of devoted to who's for Australia — One Nation, Trumpets are showing very good signs of being only for Australia."

    Geoff Moore from Dalby in the Nationals-held seat of Maranoa is backing Mr Palmer's political outfit.

    Mr Moore said he was a former Labor voter, but this year voted for Trumpet of Patriots candidate Jonathan Allen Humes.

    His support for the party is based on Mr Palmer's wealth.

    "He's a billionaire and the economy is basically a company," Mr Moore said.

    Colin Johnson, who lives on Russell Island in the outer-suburban Brisbane seat of Bowman, is leaning towards One Nation this election.

    He said the minor party's move to give its preferences to the Liberals was "one of the reasons". 

    Another is admiration for Ms Hanson.

    "She's always said what everyone thinks, whether it's politically palatable or not," Mr Johnson said.

    He is not a fan, though, of the Trumpet of Patriots' decision to align itself with US president Donald Trump.

    It's a sentiment some experts say could hinder Mr Palmer's chances this election.

    What will the Trump effect be?

    Mr Palmer has made no secret of his Donald Trump-themed pitch to voters.

    As he launched his campaign over the Easter weekend, hats emblazoned with the slogan "Make Australia Great Again" were distributed to attendees in Mr Palmer's signature yellow branding.

    Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said Mr Palmer's decision to lean into the Trump brand would likely hinder the Queensland billionaire's chances.

    "Since Elon Musk, since DOGE, since the tariffs, there's been very few Australians who would now say, 'Yes, we need a Donald Trump in Australia'," he said.

    QUT's adjunct associate professor John Mickel believes Mr Trump is unpopular with an "overwhelming majority" of Australians.

    But the former Labor speaker of the Queensland parliament said there was still a percentage of people attracted to the US politician.

    "The harder thing is whether they're attracted to Trump through Clive Palmer — only the election will tell," Professor Mickel said.

    "Clive Palmer was only able after millions of dollars last time to get one person elected to the federal parliament, and that was in Victoria."

    Palmer and Hanson vie for same votes

    Mr Mickel said Trumpet of Patriots was vying for the same pool of votes One Nation was seeking.

    The minor party has also attempted to link itself to Donald Trump in recent times.

    An article posted on the party's website in January was titled: "Want Trump's action and style, then it's One Nation you need."

    Party leader and federal senator Pauline Hanson said Mr Trump was doing what he thinks is best for his country — but she also brushed off suggestions he is someone she tried to model herself on.

    "I've been in politics long before Trump was here. Look at my speeches — my maiden speech in 1996. I am my own person," she told the ABC.

    "But I have respect for someone who stands up and fights for their own country. I'm not an American. I'm an Australian.

    "Just because we might have like-minded policies, doesn't mean to say I'm in Trump's pocket."

    How many candidates are the parties running?

    Ms Hanson is not on the ballot paper in this election because she has another three years left on her senate term.

    But her party is running more than 140 candidates across the country, with her daughter Lee flying the flag for One Nation in Tasmania.

    Her fellow One Nation senator for Queensland, Malcolm Roberts, is also up for re-election.

    Trumpet of Patriots is running about 100 candidates across the country.

    Where will preferences go?

    Ms Hanson has run for office at a state or federal level well over half a dozen times, but insists she is not a career politician.

    "I've never forgotten my roots. All I want to be is up front and honest with the people," she said.

    Ms Hanson's party is preferencing the Coalition ahead of Labor in this election — and even moved to put the opposition second on how to vote cards in a number of seats.

    The senator recently told ABC's 7.30 that she believed Opposition Leader Peter Dutton had the "qualifications to actually become the prime minister".

    "I've put my support behind him," she said.

    Mr Palmer's party, however, is taking a different approach to One Nation as he took aim at what he labelled the "uni-party".

    At his campaign launch, when asked who he wanted to form government between Labor and the Coalition, Mr Palmer suggested it was "very difficult" to answer.

    "My view is they've all got to go," he said.

    "And that's why we put the Liberal party last in Liberal-held seats in our preferences, and we've put Labor last in Labor-held seats."

    Despite One Nation preferencing the Coalition ahead of Labor, a significant chunk of its vote may not flow to the opposition.

    Dr Williams said One Nation voters were "unreliable" when it came to following how to vote cards — and some could even preference Labor over the Coalition.

    "They do not take instructions from anyone. They're independent thinkers," he said.

    "Even if Pauline instructs them to put Labor last or Greens last, they may not do that.

    "Yes, [One Nation preferences] will be important. But will it change the overall result? No. So, One Nation preferences in Queensland are not going to send Peter Dutton to the Lodge."

    What are the parties' chances?

    The latest YouGov poll, which had a sample size of 1,500 voters and was conducted between April 17 and 22, had One Nation sitting on a primary vote of 10.5 per cent.

    The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.3 per cent.

    By comparison, at the 2022 election, One Nation got about 5 per cent of the vote.

    Dr Williams said there had been a "late surge" for the party.

    "I think it's people who are disgruntled with the Dutton campaign," Dr Williams said.

    "They feel let down. I think they were gravitated to [Peter Dutton] when he went all anti-woke, and they loved that sort of stuff, and then he's lost focus."

    As for the preferences of mining magnate Mr Palmer's party, Trumpet of Patriots, Dr Williams believes they will only help the Coalition at the fringes.

    He expects the minor party's primary vote will be "extremely small".

    "One Nation preferences are much more potent in this election than [Trumpet of Patriots']," Dr Williams said.

    What issue matters to you this federal election? What questions do you have?

    Having trouble seeing this form? Try this link.


    ABC




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