Soon after Donald Trump's election victory in November, a leader from one of the world's smallest nations voiced a hope to take him snorkelling.
Palau's president Surangel Whipps Jr, leading a Pacific Island nation of 18,000 people, told New Zealand's public broadcaster RNZ he'd like Mr Trump to see the coral bleaching on its reefs caused by climate change.
"That would be a fantastic opportunity to take him snorkelling and see the impacts," Mr Whipps said.
"See the islands that are disappearing because of sea level rise, see the taro swamps that are being invaded."
Pacific Island leaders joined the chorus of foreign dignitaries congratulating Mr Trump on his election win, expressing hopes of stronger relations with the United States.
But Pacific political scientist Tarcisius Kabutaulaka says the region has looked at Mr Trump's return to power with a mixture of "hope and apprehension".
The US has spent years rebuilding ties with the region as it looks to compete with China for influence — reopening diplomatic missions, inviting Pacific leaders to the White House, and promising financial support, among other initiatives.
Observers say the return of Mr Trump's more unpredictable and transactional approach to foreign policy will change how the US interacts with the region.
And they say the largest fissure between the Trump administration and the Pacific will be on climate change.
While Pacific Island countries to lower carbon emissions, one of Mr Trump's first acts as president this week was to sign an order to begin the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement.
The move has already drawn criticism from some leaders in the region, with former New Zealand MP and well-respected Samoan commentator Aupito William Sio predicting China will fill the void to become the "leading force for global multinational organisations" in the Pacific.
He also criticised Mr Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the World Health Organization.
"When you listen to [Mr Trump's] arguments about the global community free riding, what he fails to understand is multilateral organisations are about burden sharing," Mr Sio said.
"And the US has been a great beneficiary of partnership and cooperation with [the] WHO and with world organisations when it comes to climate change.
"They're shooting their own foot by doing what they're doing now."
But the Trump administration will also encounter a Pacific that has changed since he left office in 2021, experts say.
"Very soon it will find a region in which China has even deeper engagement than it did last time," Anna Powles, a Massey University associate professor and expert in Pacific security, said.
"And it'll find a region which does view US engagement fairly cynically."
Competition, not climate
Mr Trump has signalled radical changes in US foreign policy, from control of Greenland and retaking the Panama Canal, to ending the war in Ukraine.
He's long expressed scepticism about the US's traditional partnerships, deriding NATO's European members over their defence spending.
But while Mr Trump has had less to say recently about the Pacific, experts say he's unlikely to disengage from the region.
Some argue that he showed an understanding of the region's importance to the US in his first term, when the National Security Council had its first director for Oceania and Indo-Pacific Security, and Mr Trump at the White House.
"The US will continue to see the Pacific Islands as geostrategically important, and therefore having military presence in the region will continue to be important," Dr Kabutaulaka said.
Still, experts say Mr Trump will bring different priorities in his dealings with the region.
"That focus and the nature and tone of that engagement is likely to look very different from what we've experienced under a Biden administration, and even under the previous Trump administration," Dr Powles said.
While Joe Biden put climate change at the centre of the US relationship with the Pacific, Mr Trump will see the region through another prism, she said.
"It is very clear that the Pacific will be seen by the Trump administration as central to competition with China," Dr Powles said.
"Security will be front and centre of the Trump administration engagement with the Pacific."
Dr Powles said this could involve the US pursuing more security agreements in the region, such as the Biden administration's .
Under Mr Biden, the US reopened embassies in Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Tonga, continued ramping up dialogue including in two White House summits with Pacific leaders, and promised the region $US810 million ($1.29 billion) in funding.
The Biden administration also renewed agreements with the Marshall Islands, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia, giving the US military access to their territories in exchange for $7 billion of financial support over 20 years, among other benefits.
Experts say after returning to office, Mr Trump may expect more from the three Micronesian nations in coming years.
"Given Trump's focus on security, we are likely to see increased pressure on those states to deepen their role as part of the broader security umbrella," Dr Powles said.
Mr Trump's pick for Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, recently referred to US territory Guam — which is receiving more US marines — when asked at a confirmation hearing to name the nation's most important strategic base in the Pacific.
A report on the America's involvement in the Pacific by the Heritage Foundation, a think tank closely aligned with the Republican party, may offer clues to the second Trump administration's approach to the region.
It said the Pacific was "worthy of increased US engagement" due to its "pivotal location" as the nation pushed back against China.
"The current era of great power competition between the US and China requires elevating the Pacific Islands to a higher level of importance when considering resource allocation," the report said.
"Americans should primarily care about US engagements with the Pacific Islands because the US needs free and open access to transportation to the Western Pacific.
"It may one day need to surge forces, assets, and resources through the Pacific — the Micronesian subregion, in particular — into conflict zones in Asia to defend US allies, interests, and citizens abroad."
'Diminishing credibility'
In the four years since Mr Trump was last in power, the Pacific has kept balancing the interests of the US and China as they compete for influence.
"Pacific Island states are looking at things and saying, hang on, let's do things in ways which suit our interest," University of Canterbury professor and security expert Steven Ratuva said.
"In other words, we deal with everybody. We deal with China, we deal with Australia, we deal with the US and see which one provides the best outcome."
Pacific Island leaders have also made it clear that climate change, not US-China competition, is their priority.
"Geopolitical manoeuvring means nothing to Pacific peoples who have cyclones on the horizon [and] are focused on building resilience, peace and prosperity for our families, communities, nations and our region," Pacific Islands Forum secretary-general Baron Waqa said last year.
Observers say there is growing scepticism about the US in the Pacific, after major funding pledges from the Biden administration were bogged down in the US Congress.
Professor Ratuva doesn't expect the money will arrive under the Trump administration, and said this would damage the US's standing in the region.
Meanwhile, China has recently regained its place as the second-largest bilateral donor in the Pacific.
"The credibility of the US in the eyes of the Pacific is diminishing at the time when it's trying to mobilise their support against China," he said.
"Of course, China might take advantage of that."
One of the region's biggest questions will be how to engage with the US on climate change, given its views on the issue differ sharply from Mr Trump's.
While Pacific Island nations consider it their greatest security threat, he has described it as a "hoax" and a "scam".
"It's unclear as to how he is actually going to be able to engage with Pacific leadership when he is wholly dismissive of the critical security issue in the region," Dr Powles said.
Leaders such as Palau's president Surangel Whipps Jr hope to convince Mr Trump of the climate change threat if he attends one of the region's upcoming meetings.
While the Heritage Foundation report says the US under Mr Biden had "overemphasised" climate change as a "vital American interest" in its dealings with the Pacific, it also said the US must be prepared to engage in climate change talks "to be taken seriously in the region".
Dr Powles said Pacific Island nations might find common ground elsewhere with the Trump administration, including in economic development and technology, but was doubtful Mr Trump would visit the region.
"On the same token I think it's incredibly important [to try] and advance those areas which might actually capture Trump's imagination, and seek to for the betterment of the Pacific."
She said it was critical the US-Pacific Island leaders summit in Washington, DC returns soon, after it wasn't held in 2024.
"Whether or not it will take place in 2025 is unknown, but that will be a strong indicator of the degree to which Trump sees these relationships as important."
