Tropical Cyclone Alfred's slow track to the east coast continues, a sluggish pace which has already resulted in three days of gales and peak waves above 10 metres.
Severe weather will continue to intensify through Friday as the core approaches, however, the most intense rain will not arrive until the weekend for many regions.
Alfred's erratic and slow path, which is likely to continue even after landfall will unfortunately prolong flooding rain for another 48 hours across south-east Queensland and north-east NSW, now likely to linger well into Sunday.
However, Alfred's influence will also spread south this weekend, with even Sydney likely to see a deluge on Monday.
[link — tracker]Here is an updated guide on Tropical Cyclone Alfred's future movement and a day-by-day outline of the weather and impacts to expect on the ground.
Friday
Alfred's position and strength — a slow and possibly erratic track west towards the southern Queensland coast as a category two system to lie less than 100 kilometres offshore by midnight.
As Alfred approaches the coast the intensity of wind and surf will reach a maximum, especially near the core where wind gusts could peak at close to 150 kilometres per hour later tonight around the Moreton Bay Islands and exposed northern Gold Coast — that's strong enough to cause roof damage, decimate crops and bring down large trees.
Thankfully the destructive gusts are likely to be confined to a small region south from the eye with damaging gusts from 90kph to 124kph about Noosa and Yamba, possibly extending to Grafton and Double Island Point.
Rainfall is also increasing and parts of the NSW coast and Gold Coast have already received hundreds of millimetres, well before the heaviest deluge even arrives.
Totals should start to peak later on Friday, including six-hour totals up to 250 millimetres, most likely just to the south of the eye around the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers, although a slight error in the track to the north could also lead to very intense rain over Brisbane.
That's enough rain to trigger life-threatening flash flooding, while major river flooding should also commence with 24-hour totals up to 450mm near the border.
Torrential falls are also likely across the Mid North Coast today, resulting in a flood threat down to the Manning River which runs through Taree.
As Alfred moves west, the lighter rain will also spread to the NSW northern ranges and southern Darling Downs.
Damaging surf and coastal erosion will persist with peak wave heights again exceeding 10 metres from Cape Moreton to Yamba.
Saturday
Alfred's position and strength — Alfred is likely to slowly cross the coast as a category two system initially then weakening to a category one.
Winds and therefore seas and swells could still peak very early on Saturday in some regions near the eye of the storm; however, once Alfred moves inland conditions will start to abate.
However, the threat of heavy rain from decaying cyclones can last for days if a system remains slow moving and Saturday will produce the heaviest totals in many regions.
In a repeat of Friday, dangerous six-hour totals may reach 250mm and 24-hour totals may hit close to 450mm — especially around the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers.
Brisbane could also lie in the rain bullseye on Saturday, a scenario which would lead to widespread flooding across the city.
Heavy rain with possible totals above 100mm will again extend down the coast to Port Macquarie and increase across the adjacent ranges.
Forty-eight-hour totals could now exceed 50mm for much of the eastern Darling Downs and eastern Northern Tablelands.
The ongoing heavy rain across already flooded regions will exacerbate river levels in many areas.
Sunday
On Sunday, the remnants of Alfred are likely to be tracking from southern Queensland into NSW.
Days after a cyclone is declassified, they often still generate heavy rain, and Alfred's slow path should maintain torrential totals on Sunday across south-east Queensland and north-east NSW.
Sunday's totals may even exceed 200mm in some areas that are already experiencing major flooding, and event totals will now be well over 500mm or even near 1m for localised pockets.
At some point on Sunday the highest rain rates will shift away from the coast, leading to heavier falls on the ranges, and by midnight Sunday event totals may reach around 100mm east of a line from Stanthorpe to Glen Innes to Armidale while parts of the western ranges pick up more than 50mm.
Rain and thunderstorms will also spread south through western and central NSW with pockets of flash flooding possible.
Monday
The system that was Alfred is likely to track from inland NSW towards the coast.
Widespread rain should spread south through eastern NSW, with the heaviest falls from the Northwest Slopes to Sydney, where some suburbs could receive close to 100mm.
An accelerated path south on Monday should finally allow rain to ease over Queensland and northern NSW, although showers and storms will continue, including more localised heavy falls.
While rain is easing over the worst-hit regions, river levels will still be peaking for several days.
At this stage, the heaviest rain should shift off the coast on Tuesday, however an ongoing humid and unstable atmosphere will continue causing showers and thunderstorms along the eastern seaboard well through next week.
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