News | International
8 May 2025 23:28
NZCity News
NZCity CalculatorReturn to NZCity

  • Start Page
  • Personalise
  • Sport
  • Weather
  • Finance
  • Shopping
  • Jobs
  • Horoscopes
  • Lotto Results
  • Photo Gallery
  • Site Gallery
  • TVNow
  • Dating
  • SearchNZ
  • NZSearch
  • Crime.co.nz
  • RugbyLeague
  • Make Home
  • About NZCity
  • Contact NZCity
  • Your Privacy
  • Advertising
  • Login
  • Join for Free

  •   Home > News > International

    Canada's governing Liberals were written off in this election, but Donald Trump has changed everything

    After the resignation of Justin Trudeau, it was unlikely that Canada's governing Liberal party would secure another term when Canadians went to the polls — then Donald Trump's tariffs hit the country.


    Canada's election campaign didn't finish with the usual frantic pace. Party leaders scaled back events after at least 11 people were killed when an SUV drove through a crowd at a community festival.

    But it's doubtful any more rallies or speeches would have changed the the big story of this election: in just three months, Canada's governing Liberals have staged a comeback for the ages.

    Just three-and-a-half months ago, the Liberals trailed the opposition Conservatives by 25 per cent in popular opinion polls. After nearly 10 years in power and led by the then increasingly unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberals seemed poised for certain defeat.

    Then Donald Trump returned to the White House.

    "Our heads are spinning here in Canada a little bit at how quick things have changed," said David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, a leading Canadian polling and market research company.

    "It's pretty unique around the world to see an incumbent party that had been in office for 10 years, deeply unpopular, quickly replaced their leader, and within weeks, be in a place where they're now the favourites to win the election."

    Most opinion polls now put the Liberals in front. The party has a new leader in former central banker Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau after he resigned.

    Turning the political landscape on its head

    When Mr Carney took office in March, the Liberals were already gaining quickly on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. That turnaround started almost immediately after Mr Trump focused his attention on Canada.

    The president threatened and then imposed steep tariffs on Canadian imports. And he has repeatedly suggested Canada would be better off as America's 51st state.

    Despite suggestions that Mr Trump was simply 'trolling' Canada, the statements from the Oval Office have continued.

    Last week he repeated "if [Canada] didn't have us … they would cease to exist …certainly as a country."

    It seemed the more Mr Trump talked about Canada, the more the political landscape turned on its head.

    "I don't recall another election that's been this surprising, and where all our expectations around how it would unfold were totally up-ended," said Jennifer Ditchburn from the IRPP think tank.

    "All of a sudden, Canadians were faced with a country that was supposed to be our closest friend and our neighbour, a country that we've gone to war with … all of a sudden, the president of that country is posing an existential threat to us as a country."

    When it comes to picking a leader to stand up to Mr Trump, polls show voters prefer Mr Carney and the Liberals over Mr Poilievre and the Conservatives.

    "[The Conservatives] were on track to winning the the largest majority government in Canadian history, and it all kind of crumbled in the in the matter of three, four months," said Kory Teneycke, a leading Conservative strategist.

    Mr Teneycke recently managed the successful re-election campaign of the province of Ontario's Conservative premier, Doug Ford.

    He believes the federal Conservative leader pivoted too late to the main theme of this election.

    "I don't think Poilievre, who is the leader of the Conservative Party, even uttered the name of Donald Trump until eight days into the campaign, when it was by far the number one issue for the electorate," Mr Teneycke said.

    'Not in the mood' for Trump or the US

    Mr Teneycke believes the Conservative campaign has another problem: the style, the slogans, even the campaign theme "Canada First" — it reminds many voters of Donald Trump.

    "All of that … made voters who were very focused on Trump very uncomfortable with Poilievre," he said.

    "And he appeared a bit like the Canadian franchise owner of the MAGA movement and folks are really not in the mood for that."

    Comments from Mr Trump have sparked protests, and in response to devastating tariffs, American liquor has been pulled from the shelves, and many shoppers are buying Canadian, boycotting US imports.

    "If you talk to any Canadian and you walk down the street and you say, 'How are you feeling right now?' They probably tell you some mixture of betrayed, disappointed," Ms Ditchburn said.

    "[People] are voting with their wallet against the Trump administration. And I think, having a thought about whether we can rely on the United States into the future. And it's an uncomfortable feeling."

    During this campaign, the Liberal gains didn't for the most part come from the Conservatives — their numbers held steady, with close to 40 per cent popular support in the polls. Mr Poilievre's criticism of the Liberals record on cost of living and housing still hits home.

    But the focus on Trump and threats to Canada have been especially hard on so called third parties, such as the left of centre New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois, which supports sovereignty for majority French speaking Quebec.

    "Unlike in Australia … we have a first past the post system like the UK, and so third parties can matter quite a bit," said Mr Coletto.

    "The biggest story in this election, beyond Donald Trump, has been the collapse of our third party ... the New Democrats.

    "They've basically lost almost half of their support from the last election, and most of that has gone to the Liberals."

    In the final days of the campaign, the polls appeared to tighten. But just months ago, few thought Mark Carney and the Liberals would even be competitive in this election. Let alone win.

    Watch 7.30, Mondays to Thursdays 7:30pm on ABC iview and ABC TV


    ABC




    © 2025 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

     Other International News
     08 May: When is the next vote in the conclave? Here's when we will next see smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney
     08 May: Xi Jingping says China will work with Russia to deal with international 'bullying'
     08 May: Soviet Kosmos 482 probe will crash back to Earth. But where will it land?
     08 May: Adam Bandt has lost his seat of Melbourne. What happened to the Greens in Victoria?
     08 May: Pakistan publicly vows revenge for India's air strikes, but signals willingness to de-escalate
     08 May: The conclave's first day in pictures as cardinals look to elect new pope
     08 May: How Peter Dutton's Wile E Coyote campaign flew off the cliff
     Top Stories

    RUGBY RUGBY
    Damian McKenzie's declared his hand ready for contact as the Chiefs visit the Crusaders in Christchurch on Saturday More...


    BUSINESS BUSINESS
    When is the next vote in the conclave? Here's when we will next see smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney More...



     Today's News

    Business:
    When is the next vote in the conclave? Here's when we will next see smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney 22:07

    Basketball:
    The Oklahoma City Thunder have emphatically levelled their second round NBA western conference series at 1-all against the Denver Nuggets 21:57

    Entertainment:
    Donna Kelce "knew nothing" of Travis Kelce's dating life when he was at college 21:54

    International:
    Xi Jingping says China will work with Russia to deal with international 'bullying' 21:27

    Entertainment:
    Tony Hawk wants his children to "enjoy the small moments" of parenting 21:24

    Politics:
    The Customs Minister says using cash can help hide exploitation 21:17

    Entertainment:
    Katie Thurston is now in a "medically induced menopause" amid her cancer battle 20:54

    Entertainment:
    Brenda Song is trying to get her children to "understand" their heritage 20:24

    Entertainment:
    Emma Ridley says she has been "kicked out" of a film convention over her political views 19:54

    Entertainment:
    Sean Penn thinks Donald Trump wants to "destroy the world" 19:24


     News Search






    Power Search


    © 2025 New Zealand City Ltd