Across the outer in every ground in the country a familiar refrain often breaks the silence in the stands.
"Oh even I could've kicked that!"
Last weekend saw the lowest average score in a round since June 1989 (excluding the COVID impacted 2020).
With such low scoring, many fans, ex-players and media pundits might be wondering — why don't players just kick straighter?
"Goalkicking is the most underrated stats," Paul Roos said on the ABC AFL Daily Podcast last week.
The shot for goal is the only kick in the game that moves the scoreboard. So far this year 23 teams have lost games despite registering more shots on goal.
So what's the story with AFL goalkicking, and is it as bad as it has ever been? And what are the factors in causing players to miss?
Kicking is better than it used to be
So if you've holding your breath in anger about bad goalkicking, you can finally breathe again.
Goalkicking isn't at its highest point, but it's far better than it's been through most of the history of the top league.
This year total scoring shot accuracy is sitting at 52.7 per cent. That's the lowest since 2021, but on par with the average of the last 20 years.
The historic high came in 2000, when Essendon took the league by storm. An amazing 55 per cent of all scoring shots ended in goals in that season.
It also took a long time for kicking to become accurate. No season had a goalkicking percentage of higher than 50 per cent in the first 70 years of the V/AFL. That's despite near constant calls that kicking "used" to be better.
In 1940, early goalkicking legend Dick Lee said "kicking was a lost art" compared to his day due to the abandonment of the place kick. Even the great Ted Whitten was criticised as a young player in 1953.
There's several reasons for the improvement over time. The construction of equipment such as balls and boots have made it easier to kick the ball straight, as has the improvement in the surfaces that games are played on.
In addition, there has been considerable refinement in the way players kick for goal. While Dick Lee's favoured place kick has long gone the way of the dodo, other favourites such as the drop kick and flat punt have also been forgotten to history.
Teams last weekend did kick a little inaccurately — but the main problem was they just didn't generate many shots on goal.
There's still the question of why players miss when kicking at goal, especially from set shots.
One common scapegoat is the training — or lack thereof — by goalkickers.
Last week Roos pointed the finger at the lack of time spent having shots at training.
"I can assure everyone that clubs practice goal kicking," he said.
"My only concern, as I've said this a lot, is that at the moment with the amount of time that players have off now you have to cram your goalkicking into certain periods.
"There was no such thing as load management back then. So that's a challenge for the clubs and as an extension for the fans. Yes it's frustrating, yes they practice it. Do they practice it enough? Probably not.
"And that's because of the restrictions the AFLPA put on the clubs."
The last Collective Bargaining Agreement between the AFL and the AFLPA — the Players Association representing footballers — gave AFL players one and a half days a week off.
"We train goalkicking as much as we ever have — that's throughout my time in the game. It's a really important part of the game," GWS coach Adam Kingsley told ABC Sport last week.
Port coach Ken Hinkley also said goalkicking was an important part of training.
"We do a lot of practice. People think we don't but it's because we miss a few. But we spend a lot of time on it," Hinkley said.
"They're professional footballers so they should spend a lot of time on it. We make sure all parts of our game get a lot of attention and a lot of practice."
Past greats of the goalkicking game are also skeptical that practice is the cause of the problems.
"It can't be practice, there's no way known it can be practice because these clubs now are training everyday, sometimes twice a day," Tony Lockett told radio station RSN in 2019.
"You've got coaches in every way, shape and form for every part of the game there is, so it can't be from lack of effort or from practice or anything like that."
Lockett is the fourth most accurate retired player in history to kick more than 100 goals in his V/AFL career, and was also once the goalkicking coach at the Swans. At the start of his career he trained just two or three days a week.
In 1996, a season in which Lockett kicked 121 goals while leading the Swans to the Grand Final (alongside Roos), Ron Barassi asked 'Plugger' about his weekly goalkicking training.
"Some blokes obviously practice a lot more than others. I believe I've put in quite a bit of practice over the years — I've been playing footy for a long time now," Lockett said at the time.
"I practiced a lot more in my younger days than what I do now. I don't get out there for an hour after training every night and practice. I believe if I'm kicking well for goal I might have half a dozen shots before training and after training and that's about it for me during the week."
Lockett's analysis of the evolution of his own training habits aligns with other greats.
"I was a lot more wayward kick early days than I was later, after years of refining it, if you like. So, we could spend an hour, two hours out there easily." Jason Dunstall told afl.com.au last year.
Having a consistent set shot approach is a common theme amongst the games greatest goalkickers, from Coventry to Lockett.
Deep breaths feature prominently, as often does a readjustment of the ball or footwear.
While some — like Jesse Hogan or Josh Kennedy — stutter on the way, it's really only the final three or four steps that matter.
Some current players such as Nick Larkey spend significant amounts of time before games working on their shot individually. Others do it as part of a team based approach. Props like man-on-the-mark dummies sometimes feature prominently.
Some clubs collect data on both game and training shots, with coaches providing feedback on a player's kicking. Having the right mindset matters as well, with several stars mentioning mentality as critical.
It's quality — rather than quantity — that seems to play the most important role in turning misses into makes.
So if modern players are training as much or more than ever before, then why isn't kicking for goal even better?
To work that out, it's worthwhile looking at the main factors that impact misses.
The most important factor that impacts a player or team's accuracy on goals is the location they take their shots from. This impacts both set shots and shots from open play.
Generally the closer the shots that players and teams take to goal — and the straighter they are — the more likely they are to go through the big sticks.
Collingwood's Dan McStay has taken the closest average set shot to goal of any player with at least 100 shots in the past five years. He is also the most accurate set shot kick at goal in that time.
Few players can overcome the tyranny of distance, with Taylor Walker a rare relative exception. No player, even the snipers, are actually better at converting set shots from distance than closer in.
Modern defences work furiously to deny shots in these valuable locations. Elite coaches have understood the value of defence. While John Coleman attempted to stay within 20m of goal where possible, modern forwards are expected to cover far more ground to get open.
"I think they move a bit quick for me these days," Lockett told SEN in 2019.
"The game's definitely got a bit quicker and the game's changed so much compared to the way we played the game."
While there is no hard data available, it's likely that shot location has played the biggest role in why accuracy hasn't increased over time.
Another key factor towards missed shots is weather.
Windy conditions can wreak havoc on accuracy, especially at distance. The effect of rain on accuracy appears to be surprisingly negligible, with teams converting as well in the wet compared to a clear day.
While the move to more protected mega stadiums has likely helped accuracy a little, wind and rain still impacts many games through winter.
The time that the shot is taken in the quarter also has some real impact. Players start quarters slightly nervier than usual, before righting themselves.
But one of the most interesting causes of inaccuracy is what happens at the end of close games.
Teams chasing narrow leads late usually try desperately to grab the key go-ahead goal at any cost while the winning side controls the tempo and prioritises defence.
This leads to the set shot accuracy dropping off hard for the trailing team.
This is likely a result of taking more desperate shots from longer range. It also has some root in psychological pressure of the situation.
The leading team also tends to take more shots in total in close games and converts them at a high rate, likely benefiting from the attacking mindset of the team chasing the lead.
There are some factors that don't have as big an effect as expected either.
Large crowds see a slight drop in set shot accuracy (2 per cent), but the data on this is more limited. Playing home or away also has minimal impact, with away teams kicking slightly more accurately overall since 2000.
There's no shortage of reasons why shots miss, and no real easy fixes to improve it substantially.
It's also worth noting that the most accurate team of the AFL era — North Melbourne last year — finished second to last on the ladder.
Good teams can find a way to overcome bad goalkicking, even if it makes the job harder.
