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  •   Home > News > International

    Why experts say a US war on 'narco terrorists' may spark Venezuelan regime change

    The US signals it will continue a military campaign in Latin America against "narco-terrorist organisations," as experts warn the next step could be to remove Venezuela's president from power.


    The Trump administration has signalled plans to continue a military campaign in Central and South America as part of a "war on narco-terrorist organisations," a day after 11 people were killed in a US strike on a Venezuelan vessel Donald Trump said was carrying illegal drugs.

    The attack marked the first known US-launched military operation since the administration deployed seven warships, including a nuclear-powered, fast-attack submarine, into the Caribbean with more than 4,500 sailors and marines to crack down on drug cartels.

    The increased presence comes amid a years-long pledge by Mr Trump to "demolish the foreign drug cartels" and the movement of illicit drugs into the US, in a move experts say places the US on the verge of forcing regime change in Venezuela.

    So what has happened so far, what do we know about what the US is doing in the region? And could it lead to regime change in Venezuela?

    Let's break it down.

    US says it is waging war against an 'imminent threat'

    Details of the US strike in international waters in the Caribbean remain scant.

    But Mr Trump said on Tuesday, without providing evidence, that the country's military had identified the crew of the vessel as members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.

    The White House designated the gang as a terrorist group in February and claimed its members had "unlawfully infiltrated the United States" and were "conducting irregular warfare and undertaking hostile actions" such as drug trafficking and murder.

    On Wednesday, Mr Trump told reporters that "massive amounts of drugs" were found on the boat targeted in the strike.

    "We have tapes of them speaking," he said.

    "It was massive amounts of drugs coming into our country to kill a lot of people, and everybody fully understands that. In fact, you see it — you see the bags of drugs all over the boat."

    The Pentagon has not released specifics about the crew nor why it chose to kill those on board. 

    Those details are also a topic other Trump administration cabinet members have refused to address.

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio repeatedly deflected when asked to detail operational information about how the US confirmed a drug cartel was aboard the boat or that they were heading toward the US.

    On Wednesday, he defended the strike by saying previous US interdiction efforts made against suspected drug trafficking vessels in Latin America had not worked.

    "What will stop them is when you blow them up, when you get rid of them," he said.

    "We're not going to sit back anymore and watch these people sail up and down the Caribbean like a cruise ship."

    He added that the US president, as the US commander-in-chief, had the authority "under exigent circumstances to eliminate imminent threats to the United States."

    "The president of the United States is going to wage war on narco-terrorist organisations," Mr Rubio said.

    US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth echoed that sentiment during an interview on the Fox & Friends program.

    "We've got assets in the air, assets in the water, assets on ships, because this is a deadly serious mission for us, and it won't stop with just this strike," he said.

    "Anyone else trafficking in those waters who we know is a designated narco terrorist will face the same fate."

    On Wednesday, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also announced it would end the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of more than 256,000 Venezuelan migrants living in the country.

    TPS is available to eligible migrants whose home country has experienced a natural disaster, armed conflict or another extraordinary event, and provides them with work authorisations and temporary protection from deportation.

    "Weighing public safety, national security, migration factors, immigration policy, economic considerations, and foreign policy, it's clear that allowing Venezuelan nationals to remain temporarily in the United States is not in America's best interest," a DHS spokesperson said in a statement.

    Can the US legally strike targets in international waters?

    US Vice-President JD Vance was asked this on Wednesday, and said: "The legal authority … is that there are people — literal terrorists — who are bringing deadly drugs into our country".

    "The president of the United States ran on a promise of stopping this poison from coming into our country," he said.

    Despite those comments, the US is not currently engaged in an armed conflict with Venezuelan or Central American drug traffickers or any other country in the region.

    Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea — which the US is not a signatory of — countries agree not to interfere with vessels in international waters, but the UN charter does say nations are within their rights to resort to force in self-defence if they feel they are under attack.

    University of Notre Dame expert on international law and the use of force Mary Ellen O'Connell said the strike on Tuesday "violated fundamental principles of international law."

    "The alleged fact that the attack was on the high seas is irrelevant. What is relevant is that the US had no right to intentionally kill these suspects," she told Reuters.

    Could the US force regime change in Venezuela?

    The Trump administration has consistently led a campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's leadership.

    The White House does not recognise him as a legitimately-elected leader and alleges he has direct links to criminal groups and the facilitation of drug trafficking into the US.

    Last month, a federal reward for Mr Maduro's arrest was doubled to $US50 million ($76.3 million) and on Wednesday, Mr Hegseth said, "The only person that should be worried is Nicolas Maduro, who is … effectively a kingpin of a drug narco state."

    Venezuelan officials said the build-up of US military forces in the Caribbean was meant to justify an intervention against them, with Mr Maduro accusing Mr Trump of seeking "regime change".

    Politico national security reporter Eric Bazail-Eimil told ABC News that Tuesday's strike represented a stark shift in the Trump administration's approach towards cracking down on drug trafficking in the region.

    "We've seen the US government lay the groundwork for much more aggressive strikes against foreign terrorist organisations," he said.

    "The coastguard has always done interceptions off of American waters. 

    "It's partnered with allies before to intercept deliveries from transnational criminal groups who are trying to smuggle this contraband to the United States.

    "Using this level of lethal force, a sophisticated strike from American vessels and using American hard power, that is certainly a very unprecedented development in US drug policy and US policy towards the region."

    Charles Sturt University terrorism studies lecturer Cesar Alvarez said any potential US military action in mainland Venezuela would come amid a backdrop of a "very big crisis in cocaine production" and overwhelming questions over the legitimacy of Mr Maduro's leadership.

    Mr Alvarez said an estimated 3,000 metric tonnes of cocaine was being produced from around 300,000 hectares of cocoa crops in Venezuela and being shipped around the world.

    "When you compromise the most essential values and institutions in a country like Venezuela, where not even people can actually be ruled by the person that they feel democratically is the most suitable leader to run the country but the dictator simply just does as he pleases … you have a situation in which the US is not going to take it lightly," he told the ABC.

    "I am convinced that the US administration and the entire national security apparatus has considered [regime change].

    "When you look at the decisions on designating these transnational criminal syndicates as terrorists, it's not just to send a message. You can clearly see that the decisions have some real implications for potential operation."

    Mr Alvarez said that neighbouring nations in South America had been shifting away from Venezuela politically in recent years and would be hesitant to defend Mr Maduro, despite past US involvement in coups and forced regime changes in countries like Chile, Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba and Panama.

    "No one is willing to pick a fight with a US administration, especially over Mr Maduro's head [and] a group that he runs that has been recently designated as a terrorist organisation under US legislation," he said.

    "When we look at the capacities … this is David against Goliath. I don't think they stand a chance.

    "What we could potentially see is President Maduro inciting to create that bloodshed of a situation to invigorate and to agitate their base, which would be no more than 30 per cent of the country.

    "I don't see this escalating into a conflict that would take weeks, months or years. It has to be something quick, very tactical and surgical."

    What do Venezuela and Maduro say?

    Prior to this week's US strike, Mr Maduro warned that he would constitutionally declare a "republic in arms" and encourage Venezuelans to enlist in a civilian militia if the US attacked.

    "In the face of this maximum military pressure, we have declared maximum preparedness for the defence of Venezuela," he said.

    After those comments, crowds of Mr Maduro's supporters were seen gathering in the capital city of La Guaira alongside the National Bolivarian Militia, the political arm of the country's military tasked with defending the country from foreign attacks.

    In Caracas, other Venezuelans also joined queues to enlist themselves in the militia.

    On Wednesday, Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello accused the US of committing 11 extrajudicial murders in the strike.

    "They murdered 11 people without due process. I ask whether this can be done," he said on his weekly television program.

    The country's Communications Minister Freddy Ñáñez also claimed that US reports of the strike in the Caribbean were false and "likely created using artificial intelligence," however there was no evidence to prove the validity of those claims.

    Mr Cabello's claims came after Venezuelan Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado supported the Trump administration's strike, saying it was "aimed at saving lives."

    "We have to be grateful that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and his administration recognise and act toward Mr Maduro as what he is: the head of a narco-terrorist regime that has been responsible for destroying our country, destabilising the region, and becoming a real threat to the security of the United States," she said in an interview with Fox Noticias.

    ABC/Reuters


    ABC




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