Who will be the new pope? Here's a list of cardinals who could be the next pontiff

Speculation is swirling about who could be Pope Francis's successor after his death.

But because of the way new popes are elected, it can be a complex question to answer.

Let's unpack how a pope is chosen and look at some of the people Vatican researchers reckon could be contenders for the position.

How does someone become pope?

They have to be elected by a vote.

Only cardinals — who are the second-highest-ranking members of the church under the pope — vote in this election.

And that's only if they're under the age of 80.

There are currently 136 cardinals in that category, according to the Vatican press office's cardinal dashboard.

A candidate has to win two-thirds of the vote to be elected as the new pope.

This vote happens in a secret meeting called a conclave, which can last days, weeks, or months, with four votes a day until a new pope is chosen.

They cast their votes in the Sistine Chapel and live in the dormitories in an on-site boarding house called the Casa Santa Marta.

While all this is going on, they're not allowed to have any contact with the outside world to ensure they don't have outside influences — which keeps the whole process very, very secret.

And this veil of secrecy means it's difficult to pick a single frontrunner.

Who can become the pope?

Technically, any baptised Catholic male can be elected for the top job.

But the pope has been picked from the pool of cardinals for hundreds of years — so it's extremely likely the next pope will be a cardinal.

A cardinal over the age of 80 could become the pope, Catholic historian and commentator Paul Collins says, but he says that would be unlikely.

Could a woman become the pope?

Not under the current rules.

"The reality is that the patriarchy is still entrenched and women need not apply," Dr Collins says.

Who are the frontrunners to become the next pope?

Because the whole process is so secretive, it's really just speculation and educated guesswork.

So we're looking to Catholic media for commentary.

Dr Collins, who was a Catholic priest for 33 years until he resigned in 2001 due to a "doctrinal dispute", thinks there are four major contenders — cardinals we've listed below in alphabetical order.

However, he is quick to point out that it is just his opinion and it's wise to "discount nothing" when it comes to picking a new pope.

Dr Collins says Cardinal Matteo Zuppi could be the next pope, listing fellow progressives Pietro Parolin and Luis Tagle as close alternatives.

He thinks Péter Erdo would be the pick for conservatives.

Cardinal Péter Erdo

Age: 72

Birthday: June 25, 1952

Country: Hungary

Cardinal Péter Erdo was ordained as a priest in 1975 and has a doctorate in theology.

He has authored more than 250 scholarly articles and written 25 books.

"He is more Catholic than you can possibly be," Dr Collins says.

He reckons Cardinal Erdo is a top pick for conservatives within the church.

"He will be the candidate of those who want to move away from Pope Francis's agenda completely," Dr Collins says.

The authors of his profile on the College of Cardinals Report website say he was "a favourite of the late Cardinal George Pell", who saw him as "someone who could above all restore the rule of law in the Vatican after [Pope Francis]".

"Pell was his [supporter]," Dr Collins says.

"That tells you everything."

Cardinal Luis Tagle

Age: 67

Birthday: June 21, 1957

Country: Philippines

Cardinal Louis Antonio Gokim Tagle was ordained as a priest in 1982 and became a cardinal four decades later in 2012.

He can speak Tagalog, English, and Italian.

"Tagle is humble, deeply spiritual, charismatic, with an excellent sense of humour," Dr Collins says.

Dr Collins says Tagle has been a more likely candidate in the past, and his chances have been hurt in recent years because of his handling of Caritas — the Catholic church's major charity.

He says there had been some "real administrative problems" within the organisation because of a few "duds" running things.

And Dr Collins says Tagle had appointed some of these "duds".

"He fell out of favour, which is sad because Tagle is a smart guy. He's not a dill."

"He confuses Westerners because he's very strong on social justice but [not] when it comes to some of the gender issues."

Dr Collins says he tends to be in line with "pretty conservative" bishops in Millina.

It's unclear if Tagle supports blessing same-sex couples, but in the past he has criticised the Catholic church's "harsh words" against gay people, single mothers and divorcees.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Age: 70

Birthday: January 17, 1955

Country: Italy

Cardinal Pietro Parolin was ordained in 1980 and speaks Italian, French, Spanish and English.

He's been the Vatican's secretary of state since 2013.

Dr Collins explains this as being "the pope's prime minister and foreign minister combined".

And while this makes him the number-one contender in some commentators' eyes, Dr Collins says he has one thing working against him.

"He has virtually no pastoral experience in a parish or the administration of a diocese," he says.

"That won't do well with the cardinals within the developing world, who are very strong on the need with someone for pastoral experience … dealing with people at the bottom level."

He is against ordaining women as priests, with the Catholic National Register quoting his 2023 letter saying there is "no possibility" of the church taking a different view on banning female priests.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Age: 69

Birthday: October 11, 1955

Country: Italy

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi was ordained as a priest in 1981.

"He's a very smart guy," Dr Collins says.

Cardinal Zuppi was a priest in a local parish in Rome and he is the archbishop of Bologna.

On top of this, he has substantial diplomatic experience, which Dr Collins says adds to his favour.

"He's been the pope's guy in negotiations with Ukraine … negotiating on behalf of the pope with [former US president] Joe Biden."

Critically, he helped broker peace in Mozambique in 1992 after more than a decade of civil war by working as a mediator in negotiations.

"The man on the ground in Zuppi … he has respect in Africa," Dr Collins says.

"He's the type of bloke they'd go for."

Cardinal Zuppi is in favour of blessing same-sex couples, having publicly backed Pope Francis's pro-blessing stance in 2024.

And he's indicated he's open to the idea of allowing married men to become priests, telling journalism students at an event in 2023 that the rule restricting priests to a life of celibacy is a rule that "can be changed".

At that same event, he appeared to be against the idea of ordaining women as priests.

But Dr Collins is just one of many Catholic commentators.

Another provider of such speculation is The College of Cardinals Report, a website run by an "independent team of Catholic journalists and researchers" led by Edward Pentin and Diane Montagna.

It lists the four cardinals Dr Collins mentioned above, along with 18 others its writers reckon could be in with a chance of being the next pope:

Cardinal Anders Arborelius

Age: 75

Birthday: September 24, 1949

Country: Sweden (but he was born in Switzerland)

Cardinal Anders Arborelius, who adopted Catholicism when he was 20 years old, was ordained as a priest a decade later in 1979.

He has a masters in modern languages, studied the standard philosophy and theology most priests study, and speaks Swedish, English, Spanish, French, German and Dutch.

Cardinal Arborelius is described as "genuinely meek and humble" in the College of Cardinals Report website's profile on him.

"He has a preference for silent, wordless prayer, and enjoys detective stories and cooking," the website says.

It appears he's opposed to ordaining women as priests, based on his quote featured in an article published on the Catholic World Report website in 2023.

The College of Cardinals Report says he's against the idea of relaxing the celibacy rules for priests, but has a question mark on the issue of blessing same-sex couples.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline

Age: 66

Birthday: December 26, 1958

Country: France (but he was born in Algeria)

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline was ordained as a priest in 1984 and worked as a professor of theology at a seminary in Marseille.

He is described as a "rather liberal figure, but one inclined to consensus" by writers in his profile on the College of Cardinals Report website.

They reckon he would "probably continue to lead the church in the same direction as Francis but with a lighter, more scholarly and less ideological touch".

But they point out that because he's so young — relatively speaking — it would be an interesting proposition to have such a long-reigning pope.

Cardinal Aveline appears to be in favour of blessing same-sex couples, having signed a letter saying they should be given as an "unconditional and merciful welcome" in 2024.

It seems he may be open to relaxing celibacy rules for priests based on a La Croix international article from 2023.

And the College of Cardinals Report lists him as "ambiguous" on the notion of ordaining women as priests.

"Cardinal Aveline has at times given the floor to women in liturgies, but without pronouncing himself in favour or against the ordination of women deacons," the website says.

Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco

Age: 82

Born: January 14, 1943

Country: Italy

Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco was ordained as a priest in 1966 and has a doctorate in philosophy.

Pentin and Montagna called him "conservative" in his profile on the College of Cardinals Report website.

"Cardinal Bagnasco is widely respected as a man of acute intelligence, high culture, profound compassion, and intense spirituality — and someone able to combine these qualities with amiability and a gentle nature," the site says.

He's against ordaining women as priests and does not want to change the rules that require priests to be celibate.

While the College of Cardinals Report has a question mark next to Cardinal Bagnasco's stance on blessing same-sex couples, he has previously spoken against homosexual unions.

A decade ago, he was quoted in UK newspaper The Independent as saying same-sex marriages undermined his notion of family, arguing that children had "a right to a mother and a father".

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Age: 65

Birthday: January 24, 1960

Country: Democratic Republic of Congo

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu was ordained as a priest in 1988, was made a cardinal in 2019, and has been on the Council of Cardinals since 2020.

Writers describe him as a "passionate promoter of social justice" but, in a profile of him on the College of Cardinals Report website, say his approach to mission and other crucial issues "appears contradictory".

Cardinal Besungu has been a vocal critic of his own government, which last year accused him of "seditious behaviour", saying his sermons were "likely to discourage the soldiers of the republic's armed forces who are fighting at the front".

He is listed on the College of Cardinals Report website as having an ambiguous stance on ordaining women as priests, saying in 2024 that the African church will not close its mind to the idea.

But he is staunchly opposed to blessing same-sex couples — saying they couldn't be offered in Africa "without scandal"  — and he is against allowing priests to marry.

Cardinal Charles Bo

Age: 76

Birthday: October 29, 1948

Country: Myanmar

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo was ordained as a priest in 1976 and made a cardinal in 2015.

He speaks Burmese, English, Italian and several of Myanmar's ethnic languages.

Cardinal Bo reportedly enjoys writing plays, "loves sports" and is known to play football and basketball with other priests.

"Those who know Bo well say he is not in favour of ordaining women priests, making priestly celibacy optional, and blessings of same-sex couples," writers note in a profile on him for the College of Cardinals Report website.

"But he has spoken little, if at all, about these issues as they are not generally issues for the Church in Myanmar, and because he prefers to focus on justice and peace in such a conflict-ridden and repressed nation."

Cardinal Stephen Brislin

Age: 68

Birthday: September 25, 1956

Country: South Africa

Cardinal Stephen Brislin was ordained as a priest in 1983 and studied psychology at the University of Cape Town.

He's described as being "on the classically liberal wing of the church" by writers on the College of Cardinals Report website.

"Brislin has been outspoken about the challenges facing South Africa, including poverty, corruption, and the need for ethical leadership," the website says.

He's supportive of blessing same-sex couples but has said that "giving a blessing to couples in a union is not to legitimise their union".

Cardinal Brislin may be open to the idea of ordaining women and relaxing celibacy laws for priests, having been part of a conference last year that said both issues warranted further discussion.

Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke

Age: 76

Birthday: June 30, 1948

Country: United States

Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke was ordained as a priest in 1975 and speaks Latin, French, Italian and English.

He was described as "conservative" by news agency Reuters after he and four other cardinals challenged Pope Francis on blessing same-sex couples in 2023.

Later that year, the Associated Press reported that Pope Francis revoked Cardinal Burke's subsidised Vatican apartment and retirement salary.

The College of Cardinals Report website says he is against blessing same-sex couples but lists his stance on ordaining women and allowing priests to marry as "ambiguous".

In 2015, Cardinal Burke said the church had become too "feminised" and said that allowing girls to be altar servers contributed to the declining rate of men becoming priests.

And in an interview published on YouTube last year, he spoke about priestly celibacy as being a "gift".

Cardinal Willem Eijk

Age: 71

Birthday: June 22, 1953

Country: Netherlands

Cardinal Willem Eijk studied medicine before he was ordained as a priest in 1985, and went on to get doctorates in medical bioethics research and philosophy.

He's been a cardinal since 2012

Cardinal Eijk speaks Dutch, English and Italian.

He's described as "solidly orthodox and pro-life", with the writers of his profile on the College of Cardinals Report website making special note of his ardent support for the COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic.

He's against ordaining women as priests and opposes allowing priests to marry, the website says.

Cardinal Eijk also spoke against blessing same-sex couples, saying the idea was "undermining the church's teaching on the morality of marriage and sexual ethics" in a piece published by New Daily Compass in 2022.

Cardinal Fernando Filoni

Age: 78

Birthday: April 16, 1946

Country: Italy

Cardinal Fernando Filoni was ordained as a priest in 1970 and has a diploma of public opinion sciences and techniques, majoring in journalism.

As part of his work in the Holy See's Diplomatic Service, he has served in Sri Lanka, Iran, the Philippines, Hong Kong and Brazil. He has also been stationed in Iraq and Jordan.

Cardinal Filoni has been described by writers on the College of Cardinals Report website as "an expert on Chinese affairs and the Middle East".

"A reserved and discreet figure, a man of pastoral sensitivity with a wealth of curial and diplomatic experience, Cardinal Filoni has been increasingly considered papabile," the website says.

It's difficult to ascertain his opinion on ordaining women, blessing same-sex couples or allowing priests to marry, with the College of Cardinals Report having question marks next to these issues on his profile.

Cardinal Kurt Koch

Age: 74

Birthday: March 15, 1950

Country: Switzerland

Cardinal Kurt Koch was ordained as a priest in 1982 and speaks German, Italian, French and English.

When he was presented an honorary doctorate by a Catholic university earlier this year, he positioned himself as something of a moderate, using his speech to reject extreme traditional and progressive positions.

Cardinal Kurt said a focus on updating the church could see a "hasty adaptation of the foundations of faith to the spirit of the modern age".

He has been ambiguous about his view on ordaining women, relaxing priestly celibacy rules and blessing same-sex couples, writers of the College of Cardinals Report website say.

"The cardinal is able to scrupulously separate his own theological views from what his office requires of him — something seen as a strength but also a weakness," the website says.

"He has demonstrated this by completely abandoning his prior support for making priestly celibacy optional, or even his earlier advocacy of women's ordination."

Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller

Age: 77

Birthday: December 31, 1947

Country: Germany

Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller was ordained as a priest in 1978 and has penned more than 400 academic publications.

He speaks German, English, Spanish and Italian.

The College of Cardinals Report says he's "politically conservative".

"Generally, he takes traditional positions, strongly opposing a female diaconate and resisting changes to priestly celibacy in the Latin Rite, although he once favoured exceptions to the late 1980s," the website says.

He has also been a vocal opponent of blessing same-sex couples, which he described as "blasphemy".

Cardinal Marc Ouellet

Age: 80

Birthday: June 8, 1944

Country: Canada

Cardinal Marc Ouellet was ordained as a priest in 1968 and was part of the conclave that elected Pope Benedict XVI in 2005 and the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis.

He went to retire from his curial positions when he turned 75 in 2019, but his resignation wasn't accepted by Pope Francis until 2023.

In 2022, he announced he was suing for defamation a woman who accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was in her 20s — something he denied.

In 2023, the woman's legal team said two other women had come forward with allegations of sexual assault, which he said were "defamatory allegations".

Last year, a French civil court ruled that Cardinal Ouellet — along with a religious congregation and two Vatican investigators — committed "serious misconduct" by expelling a nun without cause.

This decision is reported being appealed.

The College of Cardinals Report website says Cardinal Ouellet is "mostly conservative-leaning" but has a "somewhat modern, post-conciliar outlook that tends to change with the times and the popes".

The site says it's unclear where he stands on blessing same-sex couples, but he's against ordaining female priests and allowing priests to marry.

Cardinal Mauro Piacenza

Age: 80

Birthday: September 15, 1944

Country: Italy

Cardinal Mauro Piacenza was ordained as a priest in 1969 and was made a cardinal in 2010.

The College of Cardinals Report website says it's unclear if he supports blessing same-sex couples but points out he has said there is "no room for homosexual culture in the seminary or rectory".

He's against ordaining women — he called male priesthood a "great, uninterrupted tradition" of the church — and allowing priests to marry.

"Given his proven administrative abilities and profound spiritual sensibilities, Cardinal Piacenza has shown himself to have qualities that would surely suit a pastor not only in Italy but in a broader capacity," the website says.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Age: 59

Birthday: April 21, 1965

Country: Israel (but he was born in Italy)

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa was ordained as a priest in 1990 and speaks Italian, modern Hebrew, and English.

He is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem and offered to be exchanged for Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza when the war broke out in October 2023.

The Cardinal was described as "an intellectual who has a great experience of the Middle Eastern world," by a priest who served in the Vatican's Secretariat of State.

"Little is known about Cardinal Pizzaballa's theology or doctrinal positions partly because he rarely addresses controversial issues," writers note in his profile on the College of Cardinals Report website.

"But from what we do know of his words and actions, it is possible to discern a desire to abide by the orthodox traditions and practices of the Church while also remaining open to modernity."

Aspects of Cardinal Pizzaballa could please "reformists and traditionalists alike", Peter Franklin wrote in a profile of him for UnHerd.

"He seems at home in the modern world, but is also appreciative of older forms of worship," Franklin wrote.

The College of Cardinals Report has a question mark next to his stance on blessing same-sex couples and relaxing the celibacy rules for priests, but says it appears he's against ordaining women as priests.

Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith

Age: 77

Birthday: November 15, 1947

Country: Sri Lanka

Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith was ordained as a priest in 1975 and has been a cardinal since 2010.

He's described as "outspoken and sometimes impulsive" by writers on the College of Cardinals Report website.

"Few cardinals have the breadth of experience Ranjith has gained over the years, making him a preferred candidate for those seeking a reliable, traditional, conservative pope more in continuity with Benedict than with Francis," the website says.

The College of Cardinals Report points out that while he hasn't explicitly opposed blessing same-sex couples or allowing priests to marry, it's thought he is against the ideas.

Cardinal Ranjith has been a vocal opponent of moves to allow same-sex marriage in Sri Lanka.

He's likely against women being ordained as priests, having banned women from even acting as altar servers in his diocese in 2023.

Cardinal Robert Sarah

Age: 79

Birthday: June 15, 1945

Country: Guinea

Cardinal Robert Sarah was ordained as a priest in 1969 and elevated to a bishop in 1979 when he was 34 years old.

At the time, he was the youngest bishop in the world, earning him the nickname "the baby bishop" by Pope John Paul II.

He's described as "traditional and orthodox minded" in the profile of him on the College of Cardinals Report website.

He's against ordaining women as priests, having written about the notion being completely off the table in a book called From the Depths of Our Hearts: Priesthood, Celibacy and the Crisis of the Catholic Church.

And, in case the title of that book didn't give it away, he's also against the idea of making celibacy optional for priests.

Cardinal Sarah has also been vocally opposed to the idea of blessing same-sex couples, calling it a "heresy" that "seriously undermines the church".

Cardinal Daniel Fernando Sturla Berhouet

Age: 65

Birthday: July 4, 1959

Country: Uruguay

Cardinal Daniel Fernando Sturla Berhouet was ordained as a priest in 1987 and made a cardinal in 2015.

He's described on the College of Cardinals Report website as having "conservative and orthodox beliefs".

"When it comes to pastoral conversion, Sturla sees an urgency to recover the faith, retrieve a sense of original sin, and restore the Church's integral sense of salvation, along with proclaiming the joy of the Gospel," the website says.

His views on ordaining women and allowing priests to marry are unclear, the College of Cardinals Report website says.

Cardinal Sturla appears to be against blessing same-sex couples.

When asked about the Vatican document Fiducia Supplicans — which speaks about the issue of blessing same-sex couples — he was quoted by Catholic Vote as taking the view that priests should bless people as individuals rather an as couples.

Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça

Age: 59

Birthday: December 15, 1965

Country: Portugal

Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça was ordained as a priest in 1990 and edited a column, called What Clouds Are, for a Portuguese newspaper.

Cardinal de Mendonça represented Portugal in the World Poetry Day in 2014.

"He has published numerous volumes and articles in the theological and exegetical fields, as well as various poetic works, also drawing on literary and philosophical language," a profile of him on the Vatican website says.

He's described as being "very much on the progressive wing of the church" on the College of Cardinals Report website.

"Tolentino has attracted considerable controversy during his priestly life, namely for sympathising with heterodox and tolerant approaches to homosexuality (although never publicly speaking against Church teaching on this area) and allying himself with a radical feminist Benedictine sister who promotes abortion, women's ordination, same-sex 'marriage', and the adoption of children by same-sex couples," the website says.

It says it's unclear where he stands on blessing same-sex couples, and his views on ordaining women and allowing priests to marry are ambiguous.

How old was Pope Francis?

88.

He was born on December 17, 1936.

What nationality was Pope Francis?

Argentinian.

When was Pope Francis elected?

In March 2013.

At the time, he was 76 years old.

His name was Jorge Mario Bergoglio but chose to go by Pope Francis when he took on the position.

He was the pope for nearly 12 years.

Who was the pope before Francis?

Benedict XVI.

Benedict resigned in 2013, becoming the first pope in about 600 years to abdicate.

Usually, popes remain in power until they die.

That was the case with Benedict's predecessor, John Paul II, who died in 2005.

How many popes have there been?

266.

Pope Francis was the 266th pope and his successor will be the 267th.

What is a pontiff?

Catholics use it as another word for "pope".

The Macquarie Dictionary defines it as "a high or chief priest" so it doesn't strictly mean "pope"; the word can be used to refer to any high-ranking priest.

However, in the Catholic church, the word is generally reserved for the pope only.